Identification of skill in an online game: The case of Fantasy Premier League

TL;DR

This study analyzes a large dataset of Fantasy Premier League players to determine the role of skill versus luck, highlighting the importance of long-term planning and decision-making in successful gameplay.

Contribution

It provides empirical evidence of skill's influence in online fantasy sports and identifies strategic behaviors associated with success.

Findings

Managers' ranks are correlated over multiple seasons.

Success is linked to long-term planning and consistent decision-making.

Herding behavior leads to template team formation among top managers.

Abstract

In all competitions where results are based upon an individual's performance the question of whether the outcome is a consequence of skill or luck arises. We explore this question through an analysis of a large dataset of approximately one million contestants playing Fantasy Premier League, an online fantasy sport where managers choose players from the English football (soccer) league. We show that managers' ranks over multiple seasons are correlated and we analyse the actions taken by managers to increase their likelihood of success. The prime factors in determining a manager's success are found to be long-term planning and consistently good decision-making in the face of the noisy contests upon which this game is based. Similarities between managers' decisions over time that result in the emergence of 'template' teams, suggesting a form of herding dynamics taking place within the game, are also observed. Taken together, these findings indicate common strategic considerations and consensus among successful managers on crucial decision points over an extended temporal period.