Modeling the impact of birth control policies on China's population and age: effects of delayed births and minimum birth age constraints

TL;DR

This paper introduces age-structured models with birth delays to explore alternative population control strategies to China's one-child policy, aiming to influence population size and age distribution.

Contribution

It develops a flexible modeling framework incorporating birth delays and minimum age constraints, offering a more socially acceptable approach to population management.

Findings

Total population can be decreased through delayed birth policies.

Older age distributions can be achieved with imposed birth delays.

The model provides a basis for studying demographic impacts of social constraints.

Abstract

We consider age-structured models with an imposed refractory period between births. These models can be used to formulate alternative population control strategies to China's one-child policy. By allowing any number of births, but with an imposed delay between births, we show how the total population can be decreased and how a relatively older age distribution can be generated. This delay represents a more "continuous" form of population management for which the strict one-child policy is a limiting case. Such a policy approach could be more easily accepted by society. Our analyses provide an initial framework for studying demographics and how social constraints influence population structure.