Rotational analysis of ChaCha permutation
Stefano Barbero, Emanuele Bellini, Rusydi Makarim

TL;DR
This paper analyzes the ChaCha20 permutation's resistance to rotational cryptanalysis, showing it behaves less like a random permutation up to 17 rounds, with bounds on rotational collision probabilities.
Contribution
It provides the first theoretical bounds on the rotational cryptanalysis of ChaCha20's permutation, extending from quarter rounds to the full permutation.
Findings
Rotational probability bounds for ChaCha quarter round
Extension of bounds to full rounds and permutation
Probability of rotational collision is less than 2^-488 for 17 rounds
Abstract
We show that the underlying permutation of ChaCha20 stream cipher does not behave as a random permutation for up to 17 rounds with respect to rotational cryptanalysis. In particular, we derive a lower and an upper bound for the rotational probability through ChaCha quarter round, we show how to extend the bound to a full round and then to the full permutation. The obtained bounds show that the probability to find what we call a parallel rotational collision is, for example, less than for 17 rounds of ChaCha permutation, while for a random permutation of the same input size, this probability is . We remark that our distinguisher is not an attack to ChaCha20 stream cipher, but rather a theoretical analysis of its internal permutation from the point of view of rotational cryptanalysis.
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