Time Series Analysis of Photospheric Magnetic Parameters of Flare-quiet versus Flaring Active Regions: Scaling Properties of Fluctuations

TL;DR

This study analyzes photospheric magnetic parameters of solar active regions to identify differences in fluctuation scaling properties between flare-quiet and flaring regions, revealing statistically significant distinctions that could aid in flare prediction.

Contribution

It introduces the use of DFA to compare scaling exponents of magnetic parameters in flare-quiet and flaring active regions, highlighting significant differences and non-stationary behaviors.

Findings

Flaring regions tend to have higher scaling exponents than flare-quiet regions.

Most magnetic parameters exhibit non-stationary, persistent or anti-persistent properties.

Significant differences in the distribution of scaling exponents help distinguish flare activity.

Abstract

Time series of photospheric magnetic parameters of solar active regions (ARs) are used to answer whether scaling properties of fluctuations embedded in such time series help to distinguish between flare-quiet and flaring ARs. We examine a total of 118 flare-quiet and 118 flaring AR patches (called HARPs), which were observed from 2010 to 2016 by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Specifically, the scaling exponent of fluctuations is derived applying the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) method to a dataset of 8-day time series of 18 photospheric magnetic parameters at 12-min cadence for all HARPs under investigation. We first find a statistically significant difference in the distribution of the scaling exponent between the flare-quiet and flaring HARPs, in particular for some space-averaged, signed parameters associated with magnetic field line twist, electric current density, and current helicity. The flaring HARPs tend to show higher values of the scaling exponent compared to those of the flare-quiet ones, even though there is considerable overlap between their distributions. In addition, for both the flare-quiet and flaring HARPs the DFA analysis indicates that (1) time series of most of various magnetic parameters under consideration are non-stationary, and (2) time series of the total unsigned magnetic flux and the mean photospheric magnetic free energy density in general present a non-stationary, persistent property, while the total unsigned flux near magnetic polarity inversion lines and parameters related to current density show a non-stationary, anti-persistent trend in their time series.