The unintended consequences of inconsistent pandemic control policies

TL;DR

This study examines how inconsistent COVID-19 control policies across regions can lead to increased risky behaviors and travel, potentially worsening epidemic outcomes despite restrictions.

Contribution

It provides a combined data analysis and mathematical modeling approach to reveal unintended consequences of patchy epidemic control measures.

Findings

Certain venues, like churches, saw increased attendance despite overall declines.

Travel distances to venues increased by 13%, indicating displacement of activities.

Partial measures can be counterproductive, potentially worsening epidemic spread.

Abstract

Controlling the spread of COVID-19 - even after a licensed vaccine is available - requires the effective use of non-pharmaceutical interventions: physical distancing, limits on group sizes, mask wearing, etc. To date, such interventions have neither been uniformly nor systematically implemented in most countries. For example, even when under strict stay-at-home orders, numerous jurisdictions granted exceptions and/or were in close proximity to locations with entirely different regulations in place. Here, we investigate the impact of such geographic inconsistencies in epidemic control policies by coupling search and mobility data to a simple mathematical model of SARS-COV2 transmission. Our results show that while stay-at-home orders decrease contacts in most areas of the US, some specific activities and venues often see an increase in attendance. Indeed, over the month of March 2020, between 10 and 30% of churches in the US saw increases in attendance; even as the total number of visits to churches declined nationally. This heterogeneity, where certain venues see substantial increases in attendance while others close, suggests that closure can cause individuals to find an open venue, even if that requires longer-distance travel. And, indeed, the average distance travelled to churches in the US rose by 13% over the same period. Strikingly, our model reveals that across a broad range of model parameters, partial measures can often be worse than none at all where individuals not complying with policies by traveling to neighboring areas can create epidemics when the outbreak would otherwise have been controlled. Taken together, our data analysis and modelling results highlight the potential unintended consequences of inconsistent epidemic control policies and stress the importance of balancing the societal needs of a population with the risk of an outbreak growing into a large epidemic.