Feedback control of the COVID-19 pandemic with guaranteed non-exceeding ICU capacity

TL;DR

This paper presents a feedback control method using bang-bang funnel controllers to ensure COVID-19 ICU capacity is not exceeded, providing a robust decision-making tool based on limited measurements.

Contribution

It introduces a novel control approach that guarantees ICU capacity limits during the pandemic, robust to model uncertainties and requiring minimal data.

Findings

Controller effectively maintains ICU capacity constraints.

Robustness to epidemiological parameter uncertainties.

Simulations demonstrate practical applicability.

Abstract

In this paper we investigate feedback control techniques for the COVID-19 pandemic which are able to guarantee that the capacity of available intensive care unit beds is not exceeded. The control signal models the social distancing policies enacted by the local government. We propose a control design based on the bang-bang funnel controller which is robust with respect to uncertainties in the parameters of the epidemiological model and only requires measurements of the number of individuals who require medical attention. Therefore, it may serve as a first step towards a reliable decision making mechanism. Simulations illustrate the efficiency of the proposed controller.