Probability and consequences of living inside a computer simulation

TL;DR

This paper develops a probabilistic framework to estimate the likelihood our universe is a simulation, finds this probability is lower than previously thought, and explores potential outside eavesdropping and cryptography vulnerabilities within simulated realities.

Contribution

It introduces a Drake-style equation for universe simulation probability and analyzes the impact of recursive simulations and external eavesdropping threats.

Findings

Simulation probability is lower than earlier estimates.

Recursive simulations reduce the likelihood of our universe being a simulation.

A general attack can bypass quantum cryptography inside a simulation.

Abstract

It is shown that under reasonable assumptions a Drake-style equation can be obtained for the probability that our universe is the result of a deliberate simulation. Evaluating loose bounds for certain terms in the equation shows that the probability is unlikely to be as high as previously reported in the literature, especially in a scenario where the simulations are recursive. Furthermore, we investigate the possibility of eavesdropping from the outside of such a simulation and introduce a general attack that can circumvent attempts at quantum cryptography inside the simulation, even if the quantum properties of the simulation are genuine.