Impact of a small number of large bubbles on Covid-19 transmission within universities

TL;DR

This study evaluates how small social bubbles among university students influence Covid-19 transmission, highlighting that breaking these bubbles into larger groups significantly increases infection risk.

Contribution

It combines analytic and computational models to quantify the impact of bubble size on Covid-19 spread within universities, emphasizing the importance of maintaining small bubbles.

Findings

Breaking small bubbles into larger groups increases transmission risk.

Small bubbles help contain Covid-19 spread within universities.

Effective testing and tracing are crucial for bubble success.

Abstract

This paper uses a variety of analytic and computational models to assess the impact of university student social/study bubbles. Bubbles are being considered as a means to reduce the potential impact of Covid-19 spread within Universities, which may otherwise indirectly cause millions of additional cases in the wider population. The different models agree in broad terms that any breaking of small bubbles into larger units such as a year group or small student halls, will lead to substantial impact on the larger community. This emphasises the need for students to be well-informed and for effective campus test, track and trace.