Progenitor properties of type II supernovae: fitting to hydrodynamical models using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

TL;DR

This paper introduces a robust statistical method combining hydrodynamical models and MCMC to accurately determine the progenitor and explosion properties of type II supernovae, resolving previous uncertainties and tensions in mass estimates.

Contribution

The authors develop a novel approach that simultaneously fits light curves and velocity evolution to hydrodynamical models using MCMC, improving constraints on supernova progenitor properties.

Findings

Progenitor mass estimates align with pre-explosion imaging.

Hydrodynamical modeling constrains explosion energy and nickel mass.

Method is consistent with previous spectral and imaging analyses.

Abstract

The progenitor and explosion properties of type II supernovae (SNe II) are fundamental to understand the evolution of massive stars. Special interest has been given to the range of initial masses of their progenitors, but despite the efforts made, it is still uncertain. Direct imaging of progenitors in pre-explosion images point out an upper initial mass cutoff of $\sim$18$M_{\odot}$. However, this is in tension with previous studies in which progenitor masses inferred by light curve modelling tend to favour high-mass solutions. Moreover, it has been argued that light curve modelling alone cannot provide a unique solution for the progenitor and explosion properties of SNe II. We develop a robust method which helps us to constrain the physical parameters of SNe II by fitting simultaneously their bolometric light curve and the evolution of the photospheric velocity to hydrodynamical models using statistical inference techniques. Pre-supernova red supergiant models were created using the stellar evolution code MESA, varying the initial progenitor mass. The explosion of these progenitors was then processed through hydrodynamical simulations, where the explosion energy, synthesised nickel mass, and the latter's spatial distribution within the ejecta were changed. We compare to observations via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We apply this method to a well-studied set of SNe with an observed progenitor in pre-explosion images and compare with results in the literature. Progenitor mass constraints are found to be consistent between our results and those derived by pre-SN imaging and the analysis of late-time spectral modelling. We have developed a robust method to infer progenitor and explosion properties of SN II progenitors which is consistent with other methods in the literature, which suggests that hydrodynamical modelling is able to accurately constrain physical properties of SNe II.