COVID-19 in South Asia: Real-time monitoring of reproduction and case fatality rate

TL;DR

This study provides real-time estimates of COVID-19 transmission and fatality rates in South Asia, highlighting the importance of monitoring and regional cooperation to control the pandemic's spread.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive real-time analysis of COVID-19 reproduction and fatality rates in South Asia using multiple estimation methods.

Findings

India, Maldives, and Nepal have $R_t$ > 1, indicating ongoing transmission.

Case fatality rates are lower compared to other regions, but vigilance is necessary.

Regional cooperation is crucial for effective pandemic management.

Abstract

As the ravages caused by COVID-19 pandemic are becoming inevitable with every moment, monitoring and understanding of transmission and fatality rate has become even more paramount for containing its spread. The key purpose of this analysis is to report the real-time effective reproduction rate ($R_t$ ) and case fatality rates (CFR) of COVID-19 in South Asia region. Data for this study are extracted from JHU CSSE COVID-19 Data source up to July 31, 2020. $R_t$ is estimated using exponential growth and time-dependent methods. R0 package in R-language is employed to estimate $R_t$ by fitting the existing epidemic curve. Case fatality rate is estimated by using Naive and Kaplan-Meier methods. Owing to exponential increase in cases of COVID-19, the pandemic will ensue in India, Maldives and in Nepal as $R_t$ was estimated greater than 1 for these countries. Although case fatality rates are found lesser as compared to other highly affected regions in the world, strict monitoring of deaths for better health facilities and care of patients is emphasized. More regional level cooperation and efforts are the need of time to minimize the detrimental effects of the virus.