Modeling the past and future activity of the Halleyids meteor showers

TL;DR

This paper introduces a numerical model of the eta-Aquariid and Orionid meteor showers, analyzing their origins, variability, and predicting future activity based on 35 years of observations and simulations.

Contribution

The study develops a new numerical model calibrated with observational data to simulate and forecast the activity of Halleyid meteor showers from 1985 to 2050.

Findings

Model reproduces current eta-Aquariid and Orionid characteristics.

Eta-Aquariids are over 5000 years old; Orionids contain older material.

Predicted no significant Orionid outbursts through 2050; eta-Aquariid outbursts in 2023, 2024, 2045, 2046.

Abstract

We present a new numerical model of the eta-Aquariid and Orionid meteor showers. The model investigates the origin, variability and age of the eta-Aquariid and Orionid apparitions from 1985 to the present day, in order to forecast their activity over the next several decades. Through the numerical integration of millions of simulated meteoroids and a custom-made particle weighting scheme, we model the characteristics of every eta-Aquariid and Orionid apparition between 1985 and 2050. The modeled showers are calibrated using 35 years of meteor observations including the showers activity profiles and interannual variability. Our model reproduces the general characteristics of the present-day eta-Aquariids, and part of the Orionid activity. Simulations suggest that the age of the eta-Aquariids somewhat exceeds 5000 years, while a greater fraction of the Orionids are composed of older material. The 1:6 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter plays a major role in generating some (but not all) Halleyid stream outbursts. We find consistent evidence for a periodicity of 11.8 years in both the observations and modeled maximum meteor rates for the Orionids. A weaker evidence of a 10.7 year period in the peak activity for the eta-Aquariids needs to be investigated with future meteor observations. The extension of our model to future years predicts no significant Orionid outburst through 2050 and four significant eta-Aquariid outbursts in 2023, 2024, 2045 and 2046.