COVID-19: What If Immunity Wanes?

TL;DR

This paper models the impact of waning immunity on COVID-19 dynamics, suggesting it may lead to endemicity and influence social distancing policies, with implications for vaccine development and public health strategies.

Contribution

It introduces a simple economic model analyzing waning immunity effects on COVID-19, highlighting its limited impact on optimal actions until late in the pandemic.

Findings

Waning immunity likely leads to COVID-19 becoming endemic.

Social distancing remains crucial until a vaccine or cure is found.

Waning immunity has minimal impact on centralized policies until late 2020.

Abstract

Using a simple economic model in which social-distancing reduces contagion, we study the implications of waning immunity for the epidemiological dynamics and social activity. If immunity wanes, we find that COVID-19 likely becomes endemic and that social-distancing is here to stay until the discovery of a vaccine or cure. But waning immunity does not necessarily change optimal actions on the onset of the pandemic. Decentralized equilibria are virtually independent of waning immunity until close to peak infections. For centralized equilibria, the relevance of waning immunity decreases in the probability of finding a vaccine or cure, the costs of infection (e.g., infection-fatality rate), and the presence of other NPIs that lower contagion (e.g., quarantining and mask use). In simulations calibrated to July 2020, our model suggests that waning immunity is virtually unimportant for centralized equilibria until at least 2021. This provides vital time for individuals and policymakers to learn about immunity against SARS-CoV-2 before it becomes critical.