Sulla decifratura di Enigma -- Come un reverendo del XVIII secolo contribu\`i alla sconfitta degli U-boot tedeschi durante la Seconda Guerra Mondiale

TL;DR

This paper discusses how Bayesian probability and subjective probability theories contributed to decrypting Enigma messages at Bletchley Park during WWII, highlighting the role of probabilistic reasoning in cryptanalysis.

Contribution

It highlights the specific role of Bayesian and subjective probability in the cryptanalysis efforts at Bletchley Park, a novel perspective on historical codebreaking techniques.

Findings

Bayesian methods aided in deciphering Enigma messages.

Subjective probability influenced decision-making in cryptanalysis.

Probabilistic reasoning was crucial in the success of codebreaking efforts.

Abstract

This article, written in Italian language, explores the contribution given by Bayes' rule and by subjective probability in the work at Bletchley Park towards cracking Enigma cyphered messages during WWII. -- In questo articolo, scritto in Italiano, esploriamo il contributo dato dal teorema di Bayes e dalle idee della probabilit\`a soggettiva nel lavoro compiuto a Bletchley Park che ha portato a decifrare i messaggi cifrati con macchine Enigma durante la Seconda Guerra Mondiale.