On the Interplay of Regional Mobility, Social Connectedness, and the Spread of COVID-19 in Germany

TL;DR

This study analyzes how regional mobility and social connectedness influenced COVID-19 spread in Germany, highlighting the importance of social distancing and spatial patterns in infection rates during early 2020.

Contribution

It introduces an analysis of regional mobility and social connectivity data from Facebook to assess their impact on COVID-19 transmission in Germany.

Findings

Reduced social activity correlates with lower infection rates.

Social distancing significantly decreases COVID-19 incidence.

Spatial infection patterns are influenced by geographic and social distances.

Abstract

Since the primary mode of respiratory virus transmission is person-to-person interaction, we are required to reconsider physical interaction patterns to mitigate the number of people infected with COVID-19. While research has shown that non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) had an evident impact on national mobility patterns, we investigate the relative regional mobility behaviour to assess the effect of human movement on the spread of COVID-19. In particular, we explore the impact of human mobility and social connectivity derived from Facebook activities on the weekly rate of new infections in Germany between March 3rd and June 22nd, 2020. Our results confirm that reduced social activity lowers the infection rate, accounting for regional and temporal patterns. The extent of social distancing, quantified by the percentage of people staying put within a federal administrative district, has an overall negative effect on the incidence of infections. Additionally, our results show spatial infection patterns based on geographic as well as social distances.