Pandemic modeling and the renormalization group equations: Effect of contact matrices, fixed points and nonspecific vaccine waning

TL;DR

This paper explores the parallels between pandemic modeling equations and renormalization group equations from physics, highlighting common features like fixed points and flow diagrams, with applications to COVID-19 contact matrices and vaccine effects.

Contribution

It introduces a novel analogy between epidemic models and renormalization group equations, applying this framework to COVID-19 contact matrices and vaccine waning effects.

Findings

Identification of structural similarities between pandemic models and RG equations

Analysis of fixed points in contact matrix dynamics

Impact of nonspecific vaccine waning on COVID-19 mortality

Abstract

In this paper we find common features between the equations that are used for pandemic or epidemic modeling and the renormalization group equations that are used in high energy physics. Some of these features include the relation of contact matrices in pandemic modeling and operator mixing in the renormalization group equations. Another common feature are the use of flow diagrams and the study of fixed points both in pandemic modeling and in evolution under renormalization group equations. We illustrate these relations through the study of some cases of interest to the current COVID-19 pandemic. These include pandemic modeling with mixing between different age groups and also contact matrices associated with contact between countries. For the final example we study the effect on mortality of waning from nonspecific vaccines which are designed to combat different pathogens but nevertheless may lessen the severity and mortality of COVID-19 infections.