Evaluating the Financial Market Function in Prewar Japan using a Time-Varying Parameter Model

TL;DR

This study investigates the evolution and decline of the price formation function in prewar Japan's financial market, using a time-varying model to analyze policy impacts and market efficiency over time.

Contribution

It introduces a novel application of a time-varying vector autoregressive model to assess market efficiency and policy effects in historical financial data.

Findings

Market efficiency fluctuated due to external events.

Semi-strong form EMH is largely supported.

Market lost price formation function in 1932.

Abstract

This paper explores when the financial market lost the price formation function in prewar Japan in the sense of Fama's (1970) semi-strong form market efficiency using a new dataset. We particularly focus on the relationship between the prewar Japanese financial market and several government policy interventions to explore whether the semi-strong form market efficiency evolves over time. To capture the long-run impact of government policy interventions against the markets, we measure the time-varying joint degree of market efficiency and the time-varying impulse responses based on Ito et al.'s (2014; 2017) generalized least squares-based time-varying vector autoregressive model. The empirical results reveal that (1) the joint degree of market efficiency in the prewar Japanese financial market fluctuated over time because of external events such as policy changes and wars, (2) the semi-strong form EMH is almost supported in the prewar Japanese financial market, (3) Lo's (2004) adaptive market hypothesis is supported in the prewar Japanese financial market even if we consider that the public information affects the financial markets, and (4) the prewar Japanese financial markets lost the price formation function in 1932 and that was a turning point in the market.