The potential for complex computational models of aging

TL;DR

This paper discusses the development and potential of complex, data-driven computational models that simulate individual aging trajectories across multiple biological scales, aiming to enhance understanding and prediction of aging processes.

Contribution

It highlights the importance of stochastic, systems-level models that incorporate interactions and variability, emphasizing their potential in advancing aging research.

Findings

Models can simulate realistic health and mortality trajectories.

Incorporating variability improves model accuracy.

Data-driven models have great potential in aging research.

Abstract

The gradual accumulation of damage and dysregulation during the aging of living organisms can be quantified. Even so, the aging process is complex and has multiple interacting physiological scales -- from the molecular to cellular to whole tissues. In the face of this complexity, we can significantly advance our understanding of aging with the use of computational models that simulate realistic individual trajectories of health as well as mortality. To do so, they must be systems-level models that incorporate interactions between measurable aspects of age-associated changes. To incorporate individual variability in the aging process, models must be stochastic. To be useful they should also be predictive, and so must be fit or parameterized by data from large populations of aging individuals. In this perspective, we outline where we have been, where we are, and where we hope to go with such computational models of aging. Our focus is on data-driven systems-level models, and on their great potential in aging research.