Solar activity, solar irradiance and terrestrial temperature

TL;DR

This paper reviews recent advances in predicting solar activity using magnetic field proxies and examines how grand solar cycles influence solar irradiance and terrestrial temperatures, highlighting potential climate impacts during the current GSM starting in 2020.

Contribution

It introduces a combined analysis of solar activity, solar inertial motion, and their effects on solar irradiance and Earth's temperature during grand solar minima.

Findings

Grand solar minima correlate with temperature drops up to 1.0°C.

Solar inertial motion causes significant variations in solar irradiance.

Predicted temperature reduction during the current GSM to 1700 levels.

Abstract

In this study we overview recent advances with prediction of solar activity using as a proxy solar background magnetic field and detection of grand solar cycles of about 400 years separated by grand solar minima (GSMs).The previous GSM known as the Maunder minimum was recorded from 1645 to 1715. The terrestrial temperature during Maunder Minimum was reduced by up to 1.0C that led to freezing rivers, cold winters and summers. The modern GSM started in 2020 and will last for three solar cycles until 2053. During this GSM two processes will affect the input of solar radiation: a decrease of solar activity and an increase in total solar irradiance because of solar inertial motion (SIM). For evaluation of the latter this study uses daily ephemeris of the Sun-Earth (SE) distances in two millennia from 600 to 2600 showing significant decreases of SE distances in the first 6 months of a year by 0.005 au in 600 to 1600 and by more than 0.01 au in 1600 to 2600 with consequent increases of SE distances in the second halves of a year. Although, these increases are not fully symmetric in the second millennium (1600 to 2600), during which the longest SE distances are gradually shifted from 21 June to 15 July in 2600 while the shortest ones from 21 December to 15 January. These distance variations impose significant increases of solar irradiance in the first six months of each year in the two millennia, which are not fully offset by the solar radiation decreases in the last six months in millennium 1600 to 2600. This misbalance creates an annual surplus of solar radiation to be processed by the terrestrial atmosphere and ocean environments that can lead to an increase of terrestrial temperature. We estimate that decrease of solar activity during GSM combined with its increase imposed by SIM will lead to a reduction of terrestrial temperature during the modern GSM to the levels of 1700.