Male Earnings Volatility in LEHD before, during, and after the Great Recession

TL;DR

This study analyzes male earnings volatility over 18 years using LEHD data, revealing a decline in volatility outside recession periods, with implications for understanding economic stability.

Contribution

It provides a detailed analysis of male earnings volatility over time using LEHD data, offering insights into trends outside recession periods.

Findings

Earnings volatility declined from 1998 to 2016 outside recessions

The decline is robust across various sensitivity analyses

Data from LEHD enables precise longitudinal analysis

Abstract

This paper is part of a coordinated collection of papers on prime-age male earnings volatility. Each paper produces a similar set of statistics for the same reference population using a different primary data source. Our primary data source is the Census Bureau's Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) infrastructure files. Using LEHD data from 1998 to 2016, we create a well-defined population frame to facilitate accurate estimation of temporal changes comparable to designed longitudinal samples of people. We show that earnings volatility, excluding increases during recessions, has declined over the analysis period, a finding robust to various sensitivity analyses.