Dependence-robust confidence intervals for capture-recapture surveys

TL;DR

This paper develops methods for constructing confidence intervals for population size in capture-recapture surveys that are robust to dependence between samples, especially when dependence assumptions are weak or uncertain.

Contribution

It introduces a partial identification approach to create confidence sets under weak dependence assumptions, using bootstrap and profile likelihood methods.

Findings

Confidence sets are well-calibrated in simulations.

Methods are effective with heterogeneous real-world data.

Approach improves credibility of population estimates under dependence uncertainty.

Abstract

Capture-recapture (CRC) surveys are used to estimate the size of a population whose members cannot be enumerated directly. CRC surveys have been used to estimate the number of Covid-19 infections, people who use drugs, sex workers, conflict casualties, and trafficking victims. When $k$ capture samples are obtained, counts of unit captures in subsets of samples are represented naturally by a $2^k$ contingency table in which one element -- the number of individuals appearing in none of the samples -- remains unobserved. In the absence of additional assumptions, the population size is not identifiable (i.e. point-identified). Stringent assumptions about the dependence between samples are often used to achieve point-identification. However, real-world CRC surveys often use convenience samples in which the assumed dependence cannot be guaranteed, and population size estimates under these assumptions may lack empirical credibility. In this work, we apply the theory of partial identification to show that weak assumptions or qualitative knowledge about the nature of dependence between samples can be used to characterize a non-trivial confidence set for the true population size. We construct confidence sets under bounds on pairwise capture probabilities using two methods: test inversion bootstrap confidence intervals, and profile likelihood confidence intervals. Simulation results demonstrate well-calibrated confidence sets for each method. In an extensive real-world study, we apply the new methodology to the problem of using heterogeneous survey data to estimate the number of people who inject drugs in Brussels, Belgium.