Investigating the association between meteorological factors and the transmission and fatality of COVID-19 in the US

TL;DR

This study analyzes how meteorological factors, especially temperature, influence COVID-19 transmission and fatality rates in the US, identifying specific time periods and conditions with significant correlations.

Contribution

It identifies the specific temporal windows and meteorological variables most associated with COVID-19 spread and death, providing a detailed statistical analysis at the county level.

Findings

Temperature shows a strong positive correlation with confirmed cases, especially in the southeast US.

Maximum wind speed has no significant correlation with COVID-19 transmission or fatality.

Meteorological factors during specific periods significantly influence COVID-19 dynamics.

Abstract

A novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is sweeping the world and has taken away thousands of lives. As the current epicenter, the United States has the largest number of confirmed and death cases of COVID-19. Meteorological factors have been found associated with many respiratory diseases in the past studies. In order to understand that how and during which period of time do the meteorological factors have the strongest association with the transmission and fatality of COVID-19, we analyze the correlation between each meteorological factor during different time periods within the incubation window and the confirmation and fatality rate, and develop statistic models to quantify the effects at county level. Results show that meteorological variables except maximum wind speed during the day 13 - 0 before current day shows the most significant correlation (P < 0.05) with the daily confirmed rate, while temperature during the day 13 - 8 before are most significantly correlated (P < 0.05) with the daily fatality rate. Temperature is the only meteorological factor showing dramatic positive association nationally, particularly in the southeast US where the current outbreak most intensive. The influence of temperature is remarkable on the confirmed rate with an increase of over 5 pmp in many counties, but not as much on the fatality rate (mostly within 0.01%). Findings in this study will help understanding the role of meteorological factors in the spreading of COVID-19 and provide insights for public and individual in fighting against this global epidemic.