A branching process with contact tracing
M. T. Barlow
TL;DR
This paper models a supercritical branching process with contact tracing to analyze how tracing can influence the process's growth and potentially lead to extinction under certain conditions.
Contribution
It introduces a contact tracing mechanism into a supercritical branching process and derives conditions for extinction driven by tracing effects.
Findings
Contact tracing can reduce the growth rate of the process.
Under certain conditions, tracing can lead to process extinction.
The growth rate after tracing is explicitly calculated.
Abstract
We consider a supercritical branching process and define a contact tracing mechanism on its genealogical tree. We calculate the growth rate of the post tracing process, and give conditions under which the tracing is strong enough to drive the process to extinction.
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Taxonomy
TopicsStochastic processes and statistical mechanics · advanced mathematical theories · Stochastic processes and financial applications