Prediction of the in situ coronal mass ejection rate for solar cycle 25: Implications for Parker Solar Probe in situ observations

TL;DR

This paper forecasts the rate of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) that the Parker Solar Probe might observe during solar cycle 25, and explores how these observations can reveal CME structures near the Sun.

Contribution

It links sunspot number models to ICME rates and models potential flux rope signatures for double crossings by PSP, aiding understanding of CME structures.

Findings

Between 1 and 7 ICMEs expected to be observed by PSP before 2025.

Double-crossing signatures include elevation of radial magnetic field and sign reversal in normal component.

Forecasts depend on sunspot number models and historical ICME data.

Abstract

The Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and Solar Orbiter missions are designed to make groundbreaking observations of the Sun and interplanetary space within this decade. We show that a particularly interesting in situ observation of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) by PSP may arise during close solar flybys ($< 0.1$~AU). During these times, the same magnetic flux rope inside an ICME could be observed in situ by PSP twice, by impacting its frontal part as well as its leg. Investigating the odds of this situation, we forecast the ICME rate in solar cycle 25 based on 2 models for the sunspot number (SSN): (1) the forecast of an expert panel in 2019 (maximum SSN = 115), and (2) a prediction by McIntosh et al. (2020, maximum SSN = 232). We link the SSN to the observed ICME rates in solar cycles 23 and 24 with the Richardson and Cane list and our own ICME catalog, and calculate that between 1 and 7 ICMEs will be observed by PSP at heliocentric distances $< 0.1$ AU until 2025, including 1$\sigma$ uncertainties. We then model the potential flux rope signatures of such a double-crossing event with the semi-empirical 3DCORE flux rope model, showing a telltale elevation of the radial magnetic field component $B_R$, and a sign reversal in the component $B_N$ normal to the solar equator compared to field rotation in the first encounter. This holds considerable promise to determine the structure of CMEs close to their origin in the solar corona.