Simplified model on the timing of easing the lockdown

TL;DR

This paper models the COVID-19 lockdown timing to minimize economic costs by using a modified epidemiological model and economic evaluation, suggesting prolonged strict lockdowns are optimal.

Contribution

It introduces a modified SIR model with time-dependent infection rates and evaluates economic impacts to determine optimal lockdown duration.

Findings

Prolonged strict lockdown minimizes total economic costs.

Economic costs include workforce loss and medical expenses.

Model provides strategic insights for lockdown timing.

Abstract

Lockdown procedures have been proven successful in mitigating the spread of the viruses in this COVID-19 pandemic, but they also have devastating impact on the economy. We use a modified Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased model with time dependent infection rate to simulate how the infection is spread under lockdown. The economic cost due to the loss of workforce and incurred medical expenses is evaluated with a simple model. We find the best strategy, meaning the smallest economic cost for the entire course of the pandemic, is to keep the strict lockdown as long as possible.