How Epidemic Psychology Works on Twitter: Evolution of responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S

TL;DR

This study analyzes 122 million COVID-19 related tweets in the U.S. during 2020 to empirically validate Strong's epidemic psychology model, revealing three distinct psycho-social phases of public response to the pandemic.

Contribution

It provides a large-scale empirical validation of Strong's psycho-social epidemic model using Twitter data and identifies distinct phases of public response during COVID-19.

Findings

Identified three phases: refusal, anger, and acceptance.

Observed cyclic re-emergence of anger with COVID-19 waves.

Demonstrated real-time operationalization of epidemic psychology.

Abstract

Disruptions resulting from an epidemic might often appear to amount to chaos but, in reality, can be understood in a systematic way through the lens of "epidemic psychology". According to Philip Strong, the founder of the sociological study of epidemic infectious diseases, not only is an epidemic biological; there is also the potential for three psycho-social epidemics: of fear, moralization, and action. This work empirically tests Strong's model at scale by studying the use of language of 122M tweets related to the COVID-19 pandemic posted in the U.S. during the whole year of 2020. On Twitter, we identified three distinct phases. Each of them is characterized by different regimes of the three psycho-social epidemics. In the refusal phase, users refused to accept reality despite the increasing number of deaths in other countries. In the anger phase (started after the announcement of the first death in the country), users' fear translated into anger about the looming feeling that things were about to change. Finally, in the acceptance phase, which began after the authorities imposed physical-distancing measures, users settled into a "new normal" for their daily activities. Overall, refusal of accepting reality gradually died off as the year went on, while acceptance increasingly took hold. During 2020, as cases surged in waves, so did anger, re-emerging cyclically at each wave. Our real-time operationalization of Strong's model is designed in a way that makes it possible to embed epidemic psychology into real-time models (e.g., epidemiological and mobility models).