Second wave COVID-19 pandemics in Europe: A Temporal Playbook

TL;DR

This paper develops a modeling framework using epidemic renormalisation group theory to simulate and analyze the second wave of COVID-19 in Europe, providing a temporal playbook for policy and societal response.

Contribution

It introduces a novel application of epidemic renormalisation group approach to model second wave COVID-19 dynamics across Europe, incorporating border control and social distancing effects.

Findings

Effective simulation of second wave COVID-19 spread in Europe.

Insights into timing and impact of social distancing measures.

A visual animation of pandemic evolution across countries.

Abstract

A second wave pandemic constitutes an imminent threat to society, with a potentially immense toll in terms of human lives and a devastating economic impact. We employ the epidemic renormalisation group approach to pandemics, together with the first wave data for COVID-19, to efficiently simulate the dynamics of disease transmission and spreading across different European countries. The framework allows us to model, not only inter and extra European border control effects, but also the impact of social distancing for each country. We perform statistical analyses averaging on different level of human interaction across Europe and with the rest of the world. Our results are neatly summarised as an animation reporting the time evolution of the first and second waves of the European COVID-19 pandemic. Our temporal playbook of the second wave pandemic can be used by governments, financial markets, the industries and individual citizens, to efficiently time, prepare and implement local and global measures.