Exact Properties of SIQR model for COVID-19

TL;DR

This paper reformulates the SIQR model for COVID-19, providing exact properties and analyzing the impact of quarantine and lockdown measures on infection peaks, proposing an optimal strategy for early outbreak control.

Contribution

It introduces a reformulated SIQR model tailored for COVID-19 and derives exact properties, including the effects of quarantine and lockdown measures on infection dynamics.

Findings

Maximum infected count depends on quarantine rate

Quarantine is more effective than lockdown in controlling the pandemic

Peak quarantined cases occur after the peak infected cases

Abstract

The SIQR model is reformulated where compartments for infected and quarantined are redefined so as to be appropriate to COVID-19, and exact properties of the model are presented. It is shown that the maximum number of infected at large depends strongly on the quarantine rate and that the quarantine measure is more effective than the lockdown measure in controlling the pandemic. The peak of the number of quarantined patients is shown to appear some time later than the time that the number of infected becomes maximum. On the basis of the expected utility theory, a theoretical framework to find out an optimum strategy in the space of lockdown measure and quarantine measure is proposed for minimizing the maximum number of infected and for controlling the outbreak of pandemic at its early stage.