An agent-based model for interrelation between COVID-19 outbreak and economic activities

TL;DR

This paper introduces an agent-based model that simulates the interplay between COVID-19 spread and economic activities, helping to analyze trade-offs in lockdown strategies.

Contribution

It presents a novel abstract agent-based model integrating infection dynamics with economic activities to explore health-economic trade-offs.

Findings

Recapitulates the trade-off between health and economic damage during lockdowns.

Shows how individual behaviors influence macro-level infection and economic dynamics.

Provides a platform for discussing potential solutions to the COVID-19 economic-health dilemma.

Abstract

As of July, 2020, acute respiratory syndrome caused by coronavirus COVID-19 is spreading over the world and causing severe economic damages. While minimizing human contact is effective in managing the outbreak, it causes severe economic losses. Strategies solving this dilemma by considering interrelation between the spread of the virus and economic activities are in urgent needs for mitigating the health and economic damage. Here we propose an abstract agent-based model for the outbreak of COVID-19 in which economic activities are taken into account. The computational simulation of the model recapitulated the trade-off between health and economic damage associated with lockdown measures. Based on the simulation results, we discuss how macroscopic dynamics of infection and economy emerge from the individuals' behaviours. We believe our model can serve as a platform for discussing solutions to the abovementioned dilemma.