Analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Rio Grande do Sul / Brazil

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, focusing on transmission dynamics, mobility impact, and healthcare capacity, providing methodological insights and estimates for effective reproduction number and ICU needs.

Contribution

It offers a comprehensive analysis combining epidemiological modeling, mobility data, and healthcare resource estimation specific to Rio Grande do Sul.

Findings

Estimated effective reproduction number $R_t$ over time.

Correlation between mobility patterns and $R_t$.

ICU bed occupancy and length of stay projections.

Abstract

This article contains a series of analyses done for the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Rio Grande do Sul (RS) in the south of Brazil. These analyses are focused on the high-incidence cities such as the state capital Porto Alegre and at the state level. We provide methodological details and estimates for the effective reproduction number $R_t$, a joint analysis of the mobility data together with the estimated $R_t$ as well as ICU simulations and ICU LoS (length of stay) estimation for hospitalizations in Porto Alegre/RS.