The Historical Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Global Agricultural Productivity

TL;DR

This study quantifies the negative impact of anthropogenic climate change on global agricultural productivity since 1961, revealing a significant slowdown especially in warmer regions and increased vulnerability.

Contribution

It introduces a robust econometric model linking weather effects to agricultural TFP and assesses climate change impacts using counterfactual scenarios.

Findings

Global agricultural TFP reduced by about 21% since 1961

Warmer regions experienced a 30-33% reduction in productivity

Agriculture has become more vulnerable to ongoing climate change

Abstract

Agricultural research has fostered productivity growth, but the historical influence of anthropogenic climate change on that growth has not been quantified. We develop a robust econometric model of weather effects on global agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) and combine this model with counterfactual climate scenarios to evaluate impacts of past climate trends on TFP. Our baseline model indicates that anthropogenic climate change has reduced global agricultural TFP by about 21% since 1961, a slowdown that is equivalent to losing the last 9 years of productivity growth. The effect is substantially more severe (a reduction of ~30-33%) in warmer regions such as Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean. We also find that global agriculture has grown more vulnerable to ongoing climate change.