Social capital may mediate the relationship between social distance and COVID-19 prevalence

TL;DR

This study finds that social capital significantly influences COVID-19 infection rates and mediates the effect of population density, indicating that enhancing social capital could help control the pandemic beyond social distancing measures.

Contribution

It demonstrates that social capital mediates the relationship between population density and COVID-19 infection rates, a novel insight not previously explored.

Findings

Social capital negatively correlates with infection rates.

Social capital mediates the effect of population density on infection rates.

Social capital has a stronger correlation with infection rates than population density.

Abstract

The threat of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) is increasing. Regarding the difference in the infection rate observed in each region, in addition to studies seeking the cause due to differences in the social distance (population density), there is an increasing trend toward studies seeking the cause due to differences in social capital. However, studies have not yet been conducted on whether social capital could influence the infection rate even if it controls the effect of population density. Therefore, in this paper, we analyzed the relationship between infection rate, population density, and social capital using statistical data for each prefecture. Statistical analysis showed that social capital not only correlates with infection rates and population densities but still has a negative correlation with infection rates controlling for the effects of population density. Besides, controlling the relationship between variables by mean age showed that social capital had a greater correlation with infection rate than population density. In other words, social capital mediates the correlation between population density and infection rates. This means that social distance alone is not enough to deter coronavirus infection, and social capital needs to be recharged.