Sustainable financing of permanent CO2 disposal through a Carbon Takeback Obligation

TL;DR

This paper proposes a progressive Carbon Takeback Obligation (CTO) policy for fossil fuel producers to ensure permanent CO2 storage, offering a cost-effective and low-risk pathway to meet climate goals.

Contribution

It introduces a novel policy mechanism, the CTO, to mandate increasing CO2 storage, addressing investment gaps in permanent disposal compared to traditional carbon pricing.

Findings

Projected storage costs are lower than carbon pricing until the 2040s.

A CTO combined with emission reduction measures offers the lowest-risk net zero pathway.

Permanent CO2 disposal can be achieved cost-effectively through policy mandates.

Abstract

Unless there is immediate, unprecedented, reduction in global demand for carbon-intensive energy and products, then capture and permanent storage of billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) annually will be needed before mid-century to meet Paris Agreement goals. Yet competition from cheaper, temporary, carbon storage means that permanent disposal remains starved of investment, currently representing about 0.1% of Energy and Industrial Process (EIP) emissions. This stored fraction must reach 100% to stop EIPs causing global warming. Here we show that a cost-effective transition can occur by mandating an increasing stored fraction through a progressive Carbon Takeback Obligation (CTO) on fossil fuel producers and importers. Projected costs of storage to the consumer are lower than pricing carbon emissions in conventional 1.5{\deg}C scenarios until the 2040s, and comparable or lower thereafter. A CTO combined with measures to reduce CO2 production would deliver the lowest-risk pathway to achieving net zero.