US faces endemic Covid-19 infections and deaths; ways to stop the pandemic

TL;DR

This study develops and simulates a new Covid-19 epidemic model for US states, predicting endemic spread, potential secondary peaks, and the impact of interventions like lockdowns and increased testing.

Contribution

Introduces a novel epidemic model based on differential equations, calibrated with real data, to predict Covid-19 dynamics and intervention effects in the US.

Findings

Covid-19 will become endemic in the US for over two years.

Maintaining lockdowns could have significantly reduced deaths.

Reducing contact or increasing testing can eradicate infections in Texas within a year.

Abstract

A new epidemic model for Covid-19 has been constructed and simulated for eight US states. The coefficients for this model, based on seven coupled differential equations, are carefully evaluated against recorded data on cases and deaths. These projections reveal that Covid-19 will become endemic, spreading for more than two years. If stay-at-home orders are relaxed, most states may experience a secondary peak in 2021. The number of Covid-19 deaths could have been significantly lower in most states that opened up, if lockdowns had been maintained. Additionally, our model predicts that decreasing contact rate by 10%, or increasing testing by approximately 15%, or doubling lockdown compliance (from the current $\sim$ 15%) will eradicate infections in Texas within a year. Applied to the entire US, the predictions based on the current situation indicate about 11 million total infections (including undetected), 8 million cumulative confirmed cases, and 630,000 cumulative deaths by November 1, 2020.