Evaluating Incidence and Impact Estimates of the COVID-19 Outbreak from Wuhan before Lockdown

TL;DR

This study analyzes the early transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan before lockdown, highlighting delays in information sharing and intervention that led to a large outbreak.

Contribution

It provides a timeline of key events and estimates the impact of earlier interventions on infection numbers in Wuhan.

Findings

Human-to-human transmission was confirmed by January 1, 2020.

Earlier intervention could have reduced cases from approximately 240,000 to 11,000.

Delayed response contributed to the scale of the outbreak.

Abstract

Background: Wuhan, China was the epicenter of COVID-19 pandemic. The goal of current study is to understand the infection transmission dynamics before intervention measures were taken. Methods: Data and key events were searched through pubmed and internet. Epidemiological data were calculated using data extracted from a variety of data sources. Results: We established a timeline showing by January 1, 2020, Chinese authorities had been presented convincing evidence of human-to-human transmission; however, it was not until January 20, 2020 that this information was shared with the public. Our study estimated that there would have been 10989 total infected cases if interventions were taken on January 2, 2020, versus 239875 cases when lockdown was put in place on January 23, 2020. Conclusions: China's withholding of key information about the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak and its delayed response ultimately led to the largest public health crisis of this century and could have been avoided with earlier countermeasures.