Future Evolution of COVID-19 Pandemic in North Carolina: Can We Flatten the Curve?

TL;DR

This study uses a compartmental model to evaluate how social distancing, testing, and contact tracing can influence the COVID-19 pandemic trajectory in North Carolina, emphasizing the need for expanded testing and tracing to avoid overwhelming healthcare systems.

Contribution

It provides a quantitative analysis of intervention strategies' effects on COVID-19 spread in North Carolina using a compartmentalized model, highlighting the importance of increased testing and contact tracing.

Findings

Reinstating Phase 1 restrictions slows spread

Current contact tracing capacity is insufficient

Enhanced testing and tracing are critical for safe reopening

Abstract

On June 24th, Governor Cooper announced that North Carolina will not be moving into Phase 3 of its reopening process at least until July 17th. Given the recent increases in daily positive cases and hospitalizations, this decision was not surprising. However, given the political and economic pressures which are forcing the state to reopen, it is not clear what actions will help North Carolina to avoid the worst. We use a compartmentalized model to study the effects of social distancing measures and testing capacity combined with contact tracing on the evolution of the pandemic in North Carolina until the end of the year. We find that going back to restrictions that were in place during Phase 1 will slow down the spread but if the state wants to continue to reopen or at least remain in Phase 2 or Phase 3 it needs to significantly expand its testing and contact tracing capacity. Even under our best-case scenario of high contact tracing effectiveness, the number of contact tracers the state currently employs is inadequate.