Filter Bubbles, Echo Chambers, and Reinforcement: Tracing Populism in Election Data

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new model incorporating reinforcement into voter dynamics to better understand the influence of echo chambers and filter bubbles on election outcomes, revealing phase transitions and populist trends.

Contribution

The paper extends the voter model with zealots by including reinforcement, analyzing its behavior, and validating it with election data to identify populist influence and phase transitions.

Findings

Reinforcement shifts vote distributions compared to traditional models.

High reinforcement levels correlate with populist parties and candidates.

Evidence of phase transitions predicted by the model in real election data.

Abstract

We present a novel model for the effect of echo chambers, filter bubbles, and reinforcement on election results. Our model extends the well known voter model with zealots to include reinforcement. We analyze the behaviour of the model, determine the invariant measure, and show that reinforcement may 1) shift the distribution of votes compared to the voter model, and 2) lead to phase transitions. We test whether the model with reinforcement fit better than under its absence in election data from US presidential elections, the Brexit referendum, and parliamentary elections in France, The Netherlands, and Germany. We find in many cases that populist parties and candidates can be clearly identified by a high level of reinforcement. Furthermore, we find the phase transition predicted by the model back in data. We finally discuss the implications and relevance of our findings and possible origins of the reinforcement behaviour in modern societies.