Monte Carlo estimation of the probability of causal contacts between communicating civilisations

TL;DR

This paper uses Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the likelihood of causal contact between extraterrestrial civilizations in the galaxy, highlighting the influence of civilization longevity and density on contact probabilities.

Contribution

It introduces a three-parameter Monte Carlo model to analyze the probability of causal contact between civilizations without assumptions on their origin or evolution.

Findings

Low contact probability for most galaxy models

Longer civilization lifetimes significantly increase contact chances

Maximum contact probability occurs when civilizations develop communication technology

Abstract

In this work we address the problem of estimating the probabilities of causal contacts between civilisations in the Galaxy. We make no assumptions regarding the origin and evolution of intelligent life. We simply assume a network of causally connected nodes. These nodes refer somehow to intelligent agents with the capacity of receiving and emitting electromagnetic signals. Here we present a three-parametric statistical Monte Carlo model of the network in a simplified sketch of the Galaxy. Our goal, using Monte Carlo simulations, is to explore the parameter space and analyse the probabilities of causal contacts. We find that the odds to make a contact over decades of monitoring are low for most models, except for those of a galaxy densely populated with long-standing civilisations. We also find that the probability of causal contacts increases with the lifetime of civilisations more significantly than with the number of active civilisations. We show that the maximum probability of making a contact occurs when a civilisation discovers the required communication technology.