First application of the failure forecast method to the GPS horizontal displacement data collected in the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) in 2011-2020

TL;DR

This paper applies the failure forecast method to analyze GPS horizontal displacement data from Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy, to assess the timing of potential volcanic failure or eruption based on unrest signals.

Contribution

It is the first application of the failure forecast method to GPS displacement data in this volcanic area, providing a novel approach for eruption forecasting.

Findings

Identified potential failure times based on deformation signals

Demonstrated the applicability of the failure forecast method to GPS data

Provided insights into volcanic unrest dynamics

Abstract

Using the failure forecast method we describe a first assessment of failure time on present-day unrest signals at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) based on the horizontal deformation data collected in [2011, 2020] at eleven GPS stations.