Forcing Seasonality of influenza-like epidemics with daily Solar resonance

TL;DR

This paper proposes that the seasonality and latitude distribution of influenza-like epidemics can be explained by daily solar UV radiation resonating with virus inactivation, providing a unifying physical mechanism.

Contribution

It introduces a novel model where daily solar UV photons induce seasonal patterns in respiratory viruses, complementing internal biological factors.

Findings

Solar UV-B and A photons have virucidal effects influencing epidemic seasonality.

The model explains the regularity and phase differences of outbreaks across latitudes.

Resonant solar forcing can sustain long-term seasonal oscillations despite internal host dynamics.

Abstract

Seasonality of acute viral respiratory diseases is a well-known and yet not fully understood phenomenon. Several models have been proposed to explain the regularity of yearly recurring outbreaks and the phase-differences observed at different latitudes on Earth. Such models take into account known internal causes, primarily the periodic emergence of new virus variants that evade the host immune response. Yet, this alone, is generally unable to explain the regularity of recurrences and the observed phase-differences. Here we show that seasonality of viral respiratory diseases, as well as its distribution with latitude on Earth, can be fully explained by the virucidal properties of UV-B and A Solar photons through a daily, minute-scale, resonant forcing mechanism. Such an induced periodicity can last, virtually unperturbed, from tens to hundreds of cycles, and even in presence of internal dynamics (host's loss of immunity) much slower than seasonal will, on a long period, generate seasonal oscillations.