Dynamic tracking with model-based forecasting for the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic

TL;DR

This paper employs a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model to track and predict COVID-19 spread in four countries, providing insights beyond raw data to inform public health responses.

Contribution

It applies a model-based forecasting approach to COVID-19 spread, enabling early detection of infection spikes and assessing intervention effectiveness.

Findings

Model accurately tracks infection trends in Italy, India, South Korea, Iran.

Predictions help identify potential second waves and assess control measures.

Model updates daily for real-time epidemic monitoring.

Abstract

In this paper, a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model has been used to track the evolution of the spread of the COVID-19 virus in four countries of interest. In particular, the epidemic model, that depends on some basic characteristics, has been applied to model the time evolution of the disease in Italy, India, South Korea and Iran. The economic, social and health consequences of the spread of the virus have been cataclysmic. Hence, it is essential that available mathematical models can be developed and used for the comparison to be made between published data sets and model predictions. The predictions estimated from the SIR model here, can be used in both the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the spread. It gives an insight into the spread of the virus that the published data alone cannot do by updating them and the model on a daily basis. For example, it is possible to detect the early onset of a spike in infections or the development of a second wave using our modeling approach. We considered data from March to June, 2020, when different communities are severely affected. We demonstrate predictions depending on the model's parameters related to the spread of COVID-19 until September 2020. By comparing the published data and model results, we conclude that in this way, it may be possible to better reflect the success or failure of the adequate measures implemented by governments and individuals to mitigate and control the current pandemic.