Excess deaths hidden 100 days after the quarantine in Peru by COVID-19
Ronal Arela-Bobadilla

TL;DR
This study estimates that Peru experienced approximately 36,230 excess non-violent deaths during the first 100 days of COVID-19 quarantine, highlighting hidden mortality impacts of the pandemic beyond direct COVID-19 fatalities.
Contribution
It provides a detailed analysis of excess deaths in Peru during quarantine, accounting for underreported mortality and quarantine effects, which was not previously quantified.
Findings
Quarantine reduced non-violent deaths by 1.89 per million daily.
Estimated excess deaths during quarantine are 36,230, over four times COVID-19 official deaths.
Actual excess mortality is underestimated when only comparing to previous years.
Abstract
Objective: To make an estimate of the excess deaths caused by COVID-19 in the non-violent mortality of Peru, controlling for the effect of quarantine. Methods: Analysis of longitudinal data from the departments of Peru using official public information from the National Death Information System and the Ministry of Health of Peru. The analysis is performed between January 1, 2018 and June 23, 2020 (100 days of quarantine). The daily death rate per million inhabitants has been used. The days in which the departments were quarantined with a limit number of accumulated cases of COVID-19 were used to estimate the quarantine impact. Three limits were established for cases: less than 1, 10 and 100 cases. Result: In Peru, the daily death rate per million inhabitants decreased by -1.89 (95% CI: -2.70; -1.07) on quarantine days and without COVID-19 cases. When comparing this result with the total…
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Taxonomy
TopicsCOVID-19 and healthcare impacts · COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies · COVID-19 epidemiological studies
