Method to monitor the evolution of an epidemic in real time

TL;DR

This paper introduces a real-time monitoring method for epidemics that tracks key metrics like infection, recovery, and mortality rates, aiding timely assessment of disease spread and response effectiveness.

Contribution

It presents a novel approach to observe and quantify epidemic dynamics in real time without relying on future evolution assumptions, demonstrated on COVID-19.

Findings

Real-time tracking of infection, recovery, and mortality rates.

Effective assessment of mitigation measures during COVID-19.

No assumptions needed about future epidemic evolution.

Abstract

The emergence of an epidemic evokes the need to monitor its spread and assess and validate any mitigation measures enacted by governments and administrative bodies in real time. We present here a method to observe and quantify this spread and the response of affected populations and governing bodies and apply it to COVID-19 as a case study. This method provides means to simultaneously track in real time quantities such as the mortality and the recovery rates as well as the number of new infections caused by an infected person. With sufficient data, this method enables thorough monitoring and assessment of an epidemic without assumptions regarding the evolution of the pandemic in the future.