Is a trillion trees enough?

TL;DR

This paper presents a data-driven model to evaluate if planting a trillion trees, combined with reducing fossil fuel energy, can limit global warming to 1.5°C as per the Paris Agreement.

Contribution

It introduces a simple predictive model to assess the combined impact of afforestation and fossil fuel reduction on global temperature mitigation.

Findings

Planting a trillion trees plus reducing fossil fuel energy can meet the 1.5°C target.

Fossil fuel energy production must decrease to at least 10% of 2050 projections.

The model provides a quantitative basis for climate intervention strategies.

Abstract

Global warming is a major environmental concern of our times. It has been suggested that the planting of trees could constitute a way of mitigating the adverse effects of the increasing anthropogenic carbon emissions. We developed a simple data-driven model to predict the global average temperature in diverse scenarios to better understand the outcome of human interventions. We find that to remain under the 1.5 degree of anomaly set by the Paris agreement, the fossil-fuel energy production needs to decrease to at least 10% of the projected figure in 2050 combined with planting a trillion trees.