Optimal control of the transmission rate in compartmental epidemics

TL;DR

This paper develops a comprehensive mathematical framework for optimal control of epidemic transmission rates, incorporating multiple subpopulations and controls, with theoretical guarantees and numerical illustrations.

Contribution

It introduces a vectorial epidemic model with control variables, proves well-posedness and existence of optimal solutions, and analyzes singular arcs for the linear cost case.

Findings

Existence of solutions to the control problem under general conditions

Uniqueness of optimal control for small time horizons with superlinear costs

Numerical simulations illustrating the theoretical results

Abstract

We introduce a general system of ordinary differential equations that includes some classical and recent models for the epidemic spread in a closed population without vital dynamic in a finite time horizon. The model is vectorial, in the sense that it accounts for a vector valued state function whose components represent various kinds of exposed/infected subpopulations, with a corresponding vector of control functions possibly different for any subpopulation. In the general setting, we prove well-posedness and positivity of the initial value problem for the system of state equations and the existence of solutions to the optimal control problem of the coefficients of the nonlinear part of the system, under a very general cost functional. We also prove the uniqueness of the optimal solution for a small time horizon when the cost is superlinear in all control variables with possibly different exponents in the interval (1,2]. We consider then a linear cost in the control variables and study the singular arcs. Full details are given in the case n=1 and the results are illustrated by the aid of some numerical simulations.