The COVID-19 pandemic's impact on U.S. electricity demand and supply: an early view from the data

TL;DR

This study analyzes early COVID-19 pandemic effects on electricity demand and grid stress in three US states, revealing regional differences and emphasizing the importance of weather correction in demand analysis.

Contribution

It provides a detailed regional analysis of pandemic impacts on electricity demand and grid stress, introducing a weather-correction method for more accurate assessment.

Findings

Demand changes varied across regions

Some indicators of grid stress increased, others decreased

Weather correction is crucial and challenging

Abstract

After the onset of the recent COVID-19 pandemic, a number of studies reported on possible changes in electricity consumption trends. The overall theme of these reports was that ``electricity use has decreased during the pandemic, but the power grid is still reliable''---mostly due to reduced economic activity. In this paper we analyze electricity data upto end of May 2020, examining both electricity demand and variables that can indicate stress on the power grid, such as peak demand and demand ramp-rate. We limit this study to three states in the USA: New York, California, and Florida. The results indicate that the effect of the pandemic on electricity demand is not a simple reduction from comparable time frames, and there are noticeable differences among regions. The variables that can indicate stress on the grid also conveyed mixed messages: some indicate an increase in stress, some indicate a decrease, and some do not indicate any clear difference. A positive message is that some of the changes that were observed around the time stay-at-home orders were issued appeared to revert back by May 2020. A key challenge in ascribing any observed change to the pandemic is correcting for weather. We provide a weather-correction method, apply it to a small city-wide area, and discuss the implications of the estimated changes in demand. The weather correction exercise underscored that weather-correction is as challenging as it is important.