Effect of population migration and punctuated lockdown on the spread of infectious diseases

TL;DR

This paper models how population migration and intermittent lockdowns influence the spread of infectious diseases, analyzing the effects of migration rates and lockdown protocols on infection dynamics.

Contribution

It introduces a population migration model for multiple cities and evaluates the impact of punctuated lockdowns on disease resurgence.

Findings

Migration increases disease spread between cities.

Punctuated lockdowns cause damped oscillations in infection levels.

Multiple peaks in infection dynamics are observed over time.

Abstract

One of the critical measures to control infectious diseases is a lockdown. Once past the lockdown stage in many parts of the world, the crucial question now concerns the effects of relaxing the lockdown and finding the best ways to implement further lockdown(s), if required, to control the spread. With the relaxation of lockdown, people migrate to different cities and enhance the spread of the disease. This work presents the population migration model for n-cities and applies the model for migration between two and three cities. The reproduction number is calculated, and the effect of the migration rate is analyzed. A punctuated lockdown is implemented to simulate a protocol of repeated lockdowns that limits the resurgence of infections. A damped oscillatory behavior is observed with multiple peaks over a period.