Shut and re-open: the role of schools in the spread of COVID-19 in Europe

TL;DR

This study examines how school closures and reopenings influence COVID-19 spread in European countries, finding closures reduce transmission after about 9 days, and reopening risks depend on community transmission levels.

Contribution

It provides comparative analysis of school intervention effects on COVID-19 transmission across multiple European countries, highlighting conditions for safe reopening.

Findings

School closures reduce COVID-19 growth rates after 9 days.

Limited attendance does not significantly impact community transmission.

Reopening feasibility depends on local transmission levels.

Abstract

We investigate the effect of school closure and subsequent reopening on the transmission of COVID-19, by considering Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and German states as case studies. By comparing the growth rates in daily hospitalisations or confirmed cases under different interventions, we provide evidence that the effect of school closure is visible as a reduction in the growth rate approximately 9 days after implementation. Limited school attendance, such as older students sitting exams or the partial return of younger year groups, does not appear to significantly affect community transmission. A large-scale reopening of schools while controlling or suppressing the epidemic appears feasible in countries such as Denmark or Norway, where community transmission is generally low. However, school reopening can contribute to significant increases in the growth rate in countries like Germany, where community transmission is relatively high. Our findings underscore the need for a cautious evaluation of reopening strategies that ensure low classroom occupancy and a solid infrastructure to quickly identify and isolate new infections.