Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis

TL;DR

This paper quantitatively analyzes the sustainability of current global population growth and deforestation, using stochastic and logistic models, revealing a very low probability of avoiding catastrophic collapse under current trends.

Contribution

It introduces a combined stochastic and deterministic model to assess the risk of civilization collapse due to deforestation and population growth.

Findings

Less than 10% probability of avoiding collapse under current trends

Models suggest high risk of catastrophic collapse

Quantitative assessment of sustainability risks

Abstract

In this paper we afford a quantitative analysis of the sustainability of current world population growth in relation to the parallel deforestation process adopting a statistical point of view. We consider a simplified model based on a stochastic growth process driven by a continuous time random walk, which depicts the technological evolution of human kind, in conjunction with a deterministic generalised logistic model for humans-forest interaction and we evaluate the probability of avoiding the self-destruction of our civilisation. Based on the current resource consumption rates and best estimate of technological rate growth our study shows that we have very low probability, less than 10% in most optimistic estimate, to survive without facing a catastrophic collapse.