A Novel Epidemiological Approach to Geographically Mapping Population Dry Eye Disease in the United States through Google Trends

TL;DR

This study uses Google Trends data combined with environmental factors to map and analyze the geographic and seasonal patterns of dry eye disease in the US, revealing environmental influences on disease interest.

Contribution

It introduces a novel epidemiological approach using online search data and environmental variables to map DED geographically and predict its trends.

Findings

DED search interest shows upward and seasonal trends.

Temperature and coastal proximity are strong predictors of DED interest.

Environmental factors like temperature influence DED search patterns more than humidity or pollution.

Abstract

Dry eye disease (DED) affects approximately half of the United States population. DED is characterized by dryness on the corena surface due to a variety of causes. This study fills the spatiotemporal gaps in DED epidemiology by using Google Trends as a novel epidemiological tool for geographically mapping DED in relation to environmental risk factors. We utilized Google Trends to extract DED-related queries estimating user intent from 2004-2019 in the United States. We incorporated national climate data to generate heat maps comparing geographic, temporal, and environmental relationships of DED. Multi-variable regression models were constructed to generate quadratic forecasts predicting DED and control searches. Our results illustrated the upward trend, seasonal pattern, environmental influence, and spatial relationship of DED search volume across US geography. Localized patches of DED interest were visualized along the coastline. There was no significant difference in DED queries across US census regions. Regression model 1 predicted DED searches over time (R^2=0.97) with significant predictors being control queries (p=0.0024), time (p=0.001), and seasonality (Winter p=0.0028; Spring p<0.001; Summer p=0.018). Regression model 2 predicted DED queries per state (R^2=0.49) with significant predictors being temperature (p=0.0003) and coastal zone (p=0.025). Importantly, temperature, coastal status, and seasonality were stronger risk factors of DED searches than humidity, sunshine, pollution, or region as clinical literature may suggest. Our work paves the way for future exploration of geographic information systems for locating DED and other diseases via online search query metrics.