Counting Risk Increments to Make Decisions During an Epidemic

TL;DR

This paper introduces a risk counting app for epidemic management, allowing users to track infection probabilities during activities, aiding personal decisions and public health strategies.

Contribution

It proposes a novel risk counting framework using a circuit analogy, enabling personalized risk assessment and integration with contact tracing during epidemics.

Findings

Risk points can quantify infection probability increments.

The circuit framework models infection sources and interactions.

Potential to enhance epidemic control and individual decision-making.

Abstract

I propose a smartphone app that will allow people to participate in the management of their own safety during an epidemic or pandemic such as COVID-19 by enabling them to view, in advance, the risks they would take if they visit some given venue (a cafe, the gym, the workplace, the park,...) and, furthermore, track the accumulation of such risks during the course of any given day or week. This idea can be presented to users of the app as counting points. One point represents some constant probability, $p_\text{point}$, of infection. Then the app would work in a similar way to a calorie counting app (instead of counting calories we count probability increments of being infected). Government could set a maximum recommended number of daily (or weekly) points available to each user in accord with its objectives (bringing the disease under control, allowing essential workers to work, protecting vulnerable individuals, ...). It is posited that this, along with other proposed "levers" would allow government to manage a gradual transition to normalcy. I discuss a circuit framework with wires running between boxes. In this framework the wires represent possible sources of infection, namely individuals and the venues themselves (through deposits of pathogens left at the venue). The boxes represent interactions of these sources (when individuals visit a venue). This circuit framework allows (i) calculation of points cost for visiting venues and (ii) probabilistic contact tracing. The points systems proposed here could complement existing contact tracing apps by adding functionality to permit users to participate in decision making up front.